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Commodity Market Declined Amid Continued Macroeconomic Uncertainty in December

NEW YORK, Jan. 8, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Commodities were lower in December as continued uncertainty weighed on markets.

(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20091204/CSLOGO)

Nelson Louie, Global Head of Commodities in Credit Suisse's Asset Management business, said, "Commodities ended 2012 lower as a result of disappointing growth momentum.  Although markets were largely focused on the looming US Fiscal Cliff towards the end of the year, the US managed to avert economic calamity with lawmakers approving a deal on January 1, 2013.  Over the year ahead, the rate of global growth will likely once again be the key to commodity performance.  To that end, recent developments suggest that 2013 may be a better year for the asset class. The recent evidence continues to suggest that global growth may have troughed, with the possibility of a modest rebound over the course of the new year." 

Christopher Burton, Senior Portfolio Manager for the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy, added, "Commodities could benefit from a rebound in global growth along with continued low interest rates.  Inflation may overshoot expectations if economic activity begins to pick up more robustly than expected.  Commodities have historically tended to outperform during periods of higher than expected inflation. Commodities may also continue to provide exposure to 'tail risk' events on the supply side, with the Energy and Agriculture sectors remaining particularly vulnerable.  We believe investors will continue to derive long-term diversification benefits that commodities provide."

The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return was down by 2.61% in December.  Overall, 12 out of 20 index constituents posted negative returns.  Agriculture was the worst performing sector, down 4.46%.  Wheat and corn declined after the USDA reported a slowdown in export demand.  In addition, soybeans and corn were further pressured lower due to improved weather conditions in South America.  Precious Metals declined, losing 3.81%, as a result of the looming fiscal cliff, despite Chairman Bernanke's early-December announcement that the Federal Reserve would be targeting lower unemployment before reigning in its extremely accommodative monetary policies.  Energy decreased 1.95%, led lower by Natural Gas as winter weather forecasts for the US remained relatively mild.  The Industrial Metals sector ended the month slightly lower, down 0.74%, amid signs of inventory builds in China and in London Metals Exchange warehouses.  Livestock was relatively unchanged, up 0.45%.  However, Russia announced it will require US exporters to certify that all pork and beef shipments are free of a controversial feed additive, effectively banning US exports.  This move was largely seen as political retaliation for a recently passed bill in the US Senate.

About the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy
Credit Suisse's Total Commodity Return Strategy has been managed for 18 years and seeks to outperform the return of a commodities index, such as the Dow Jones–UBS Commodity Index Total Return or the S&P GSCI Total Return Index, using both a quantitative and qualitative commodity research process. Commodity index total returns are achieved through:

  • Spot Return: price return on specified commodity futures contracts;
  • Roll Yield: impact due to migration of futures positions from near to far contracts; and
  • Collateral Yield: return earned on collateral for the futures.

As of December 31, 2012 the team managed approximately USD 11.2 billion in assets globally. 

Credit Suisse AG
Credit Suisse AG is one of the world's leading financial services providers and is part of the Credit Suisse group of companies (referred to here as 'Credit Suisse'). As an integrated bank, Credit Suisse offers clients its combined expertise in the areas of private banking, investment banking and asset management. Credit Suisse provides advisory services, comprehensive solutions and innovative products to companies, institutional clients and high-net-worth private clients globally, as well as to retail clients in Switzerland. Credit Suisse is headquartered in Zurich and operates in over 50 countries worldwide. The group employs approximately 48,400 people. The registered shares (CSGN) of Credit Suisse's parent company, Credit Suisse Group AG, are listed in Switzerland and, in the form of American Depositary Shares (CS), in New York. Further information about Credit Suisse can be found at www.credit-suisse.com.

Asset Management
In its Asset Management business, Credit Suisse offers products across a broad spectrum of investment classes, including hedge funds, credit, index, real estate, commodities and private equity products, as well as multi-asset class solutions, which include equities and fixed income products. Credit Suisse's Asset Management business manages portfolios, mutual funds and other investment vehicles for a broad spectrum of clients ranging from governments, institutions and corporations to private individuals. With offices focused on asset management in 19 countries, Credit Suisse's Asset Management business is operated as a globally integrated network to deliver the bank's best investment ideas and capabilities to clients around the world.

All businesses of Credit Suisse are subject to distinct regulatory requirements; certain products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all client types.

Important Legal Information
This document was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Credit Suisse as of the date of writing and are subject to change without obligation to update. It has been prepared solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It does not constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Credit Suisse to any person to buy or sell any security. Any reference to past performance is not a guide to future performance. The information and analysis contained in this publication have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but Credit Suisse does not make any representation as to their accuracy or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof.

Certain information contained in this document constitutes "Forward-Looking Statements" (including observations about markets and industry and regulatory trends as of the original date of this document), which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may", "will", "should", "expect", "anticipate", "target", "project", "estimate", "intend", "continue" or "believe", or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties beyond our control, actual events, results or performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. Credit Suisse has no obligation to update any of the forward-looking statements in this document.

Certain risks relating to investing in Commodities and Commodity-Linked Investments:   Exposure to commodity markets should only form a small part of a diversified portfolio. Investment in commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors. Commodity investments will be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity volatility, exchange-rate movements, changes in interest rates, and factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments. Commodity markets are highly volatile. The risk of loss in commodities and commodity-linked investments can be substantial. There is generally a high degree of leverage in commodity investing that can significantly magnify losses. Gains or losses from speculative derivative positions may be much greater than the derivative's original cost. An investment in commodities is not a complete investment program and should represent only a portion of an investor's portfolio management strategy.

Copyright © 2013, CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG and/or its affiliates.  All rights reserved.

 

 

SOURCE Credit Suisse AG

About PR Newswire
Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

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